Search for: All records

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships. 

In September 2018, Hurricane Florence caused extreme flooding in eastern North Carolina, USA, a region highly dense in concentrated animal production, especially swine and poultry. In this study, floodwater samples (n=96) were collected as promptly post-hurricane as possible and for up to approx. 30 days, and selectively enriched for Campylobacter using Bolton broth enrichment and isolation on mCCDA microaerobically at 42°C. Only one sample yielded Campylobacter , which was found to be Campylobacter jejuni with the novel genotype ST-2866. However, the methods employed to isolate Campylobacter readily yielded Arcobacter from 73.5% of the floodwater samples. The Arcobacter isolates failed to grow on Mueller-Hinton agar at 25, 30, 37 or 42°C microaerobically or aerobically, but could be readily subcultured on mCCDA at 42°C microaerobically. Multilocus sequence typing of 112 isolates indicated that all were Arcobacter butzleri. The majority (85.7%) of the isolates exhibited novel sequence types (STs), with 66 novel STs identified. Several STs, including certain novel ones, were detected in diverse waterbody types (channel, isolated ephemeral pools, floodplain) and from multiple watersheds, suggesting the potential for regionally-dominant strains. The genotypes were clearly partitioned into two major clades, one with high representation of human and ruminant isolates and another with an abundance of swine and poultry isolates. Surveillance of environmental waters and food animal production systems in this animal agriculture-dense region is needed to assess potential regional prevalence and temporal stability of the observed A. butzleri strains, as well as their potential association with specific types of food animal production. IMPORTANCE Climate change and associated extreme weather events can have massive impacts on the prevalence of microbial pathogens in floodwaters. However, limited data are available on foodborne zoonotic pathogens such as Campylobacter or Arcobacter in hurricane-associated floodwaters in rural regions with intensive animal production. With high density of intensive animal production as well as pronounced vulnerability to hurricanes, Eastern North Carolina presents unique opportunities in this regard. Our findings revealed widespread incidence of the emerging zoonotic pathogen Arcobacter butzleri in floodwaters from Hurricane Florence. We encountered high and largely unexplored diversity while also noting the potential for regionally-abundant and persistent clones. We noted pronounced partitioning of the floodwater genotypes in two source-associated clades. The data will contribute to elucidating the poorly-understood ecology of this emerging pathogen, and highlight the importance of surveillance of floodwaters associated with hurricanes and other extreme weather events for Arcobacte r and other zoonotic pathogens. 

Water in the Native World: The Intersection of Hydrology and Indigenous Knowledge; Pablo, Montana, 1–4 August 2018 

A growing body of research focuses on climate change and Indigenous peoples. However, relatively little of this work focuses on Native American tribes living in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. The Lumbee Tribe of North Carolina is a large (60,000 member) Native American tribe located on the Coastal Plain in present day North Carolina (U.S.). The tribe has deep connections to the Lumbee River, which flows through a watershed dominated by extensive forested wetlands. In this paper, I outline key issues associated with climate change and water in the region, and I use long‐term climatic and hydrologic datasets and analysis to establish context for understanding historical climate change in the Lumbee River watershed. Downscaled climate model outputs for the region show how further changes may affect the hydrologic balance of the watershed. I discuss these changes in terms of environmental degradation and potential impacts on Lumbee culture and persistence, which has remained strong through centuries of adversity and has also experienced a resurgence in recent years. I close by acknowledging the especially vulnerable position of the Lumbee Tribe as a non‐federal tribe that lacks access to certain resources, statutory protections, and policies aimed at helping Native American tribes deal with climate change and other environmental challenges. 

Abstract Linking quickflow response to subsurface state can improve our understanding of runoff processes that drive emergent catchment behaviour. We investigated the formation of non‐linear quickflows in three forested headwater catchments and also explored unsaturated and saturated storage dynamics, and likely runoff generation mechanisms that contributed to threshold formation. Our analyses focused on two reference watersheds at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory (CHL) in western North Carolina, USA, and one reference watershed at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SHW) in Central Pennsylvania, USA, with available hourly soil moisture, groundwater, streamflow, and precipitation time series over several years. Our study objectives were to characterise (a) non‐linear runoff response as a function of storm characteristics and antecedent conditions, (b) the critical levels of shallow unsaturated and saturated storage that lead to hourly flow response, and (c) runoff mechanisms contributing to rapidly increasing quickflow using measurements of soil moisture and groundwater. We found that maximum hourly rainfall did not significantly contribute to quickflow production in our sites, in contrast to prior studies, due to highly conductive forest soils. Soil moisture and groundwater dynamics measured in hydrologically representative areas of the hillslope showed that variable subsurface states could contribute to non‐linear runoff behaviour. Quickflow generation in watersheds at CHL were dominated by both saturated and unsaturated pathways, but the relative contributions of each pathway varied between catchments. In contrast, quickflow was almost entirely related to groundwater fluctuations at SHW. We showed that co‐located measurements of soil moisture and groundwater supplement threshold analyses providing stronger prediction and understanding of quickflow generation and indicate dominant runoff processes.